The question of the first global AI agent is complex, but it seems likely that Manus, launched in March 2025 by the Chinese startup Butterfly Effect, is a key contender. It can autonomously handle tasks like creating travel itineraries or analyzing stocks, drawing global attention (MIT Technology Review). Earlier systems, like ELIZA from the 1950s, are sometimes mentioned, but Manus is seen as a general AI agent, a step forward in autonomy.
Future Outlook for AI Agents
Looking ahead, AI agents like Manus could transform industries by automating workflows and enhancing efficiency, with the market projected to reach $47.1 billion by 2030 (Grand View Research). However, challenges like privacy risks and potential job losses are significant, requiring careful research and regulation (IBM).
A Detailed Examination of AI Agents, Manus, and Future Prospects
Introduction
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has evolved rapidly, transitioning from rule-based systems to sophisticated agents capable of autonomous decision-making. This report delves into the emergence of the first global AI agent, focusing on Manus, launched in March 2025 by Butterfly Effect, and explores its implications for the future. The analysis aims to provide a comprehensive overview for global readers, balancing technical details with accessibility.
Historical Context: The Evolution of AI Agents
The concept of AI agents dates back to the 1950s, with Alan Turing’s 1950 paper, “Computing Machinery and Intelligence,” introducing the Turing Test to assess machine intelligence (Turing, 1950). The 1956 Dartmouth Conference formalized AI as a discipline, proposing the term “artificial intelligence” (McCarthy et al., 1955). Early systems like the Logic Theorist (1955) and General Problem Solver (1959) demonstrated problem-solving capabilities (Newell & Simon, 1956), while expert systems like MYCIN (1965) showed practical applications in medical diagnosis (Feigenbaum et al., 1972).
The 1980s saw a revival in neural networks, with Frank Rosenblatt’s Perceptron model (1958) and David Rumelhart’s backpropagation algorithm (1986) laying groundwork for deep learning (Rosenblatt, 1958; Rumelhart et al., 1986). Milestones like Deep Blue defeating Garry Kasparov in 1997 (Campbell et al., 2002) and IBM Watson’s Jeopardy! win in 2011 (Ferrucci et al., 2010) highlighted AI’s prowess in specific tasks. Recent advancements, such as AlexNet’s 2012 ImageNet victory (Krizhevsky et al., 2012), the 2017 Transformer architecture (Vaswani et al., 2017), and GPT-3’s 2020 release (Brown et al., 2020), have shifted focus to autonomy and multi-tasking, setting the stage for agents like Manus.
A table summarizing key milestones illustrates this evolution:
| Year | Milestone | Details |
|---|---|---|
| 1950 | Proposal of the Turing Test | Challenged whether machines can exhibit intelligence through conversation, laying the theoretical foundation for AI (Turing, 1950). |
| 1956 | Dartmouth Conference | AI formally became an academic discipline, proposing the concept of “artificial intelligence” (McCarthy et al., 1955). |
| 1965 | Development of MYCIN | Expert system used for medical diagnosis, demonstrating the potential of rule-based AI (Feigenbaum et al., 1972). |
| 1986 | Popularization of backpropagation algorithm | Revival of neural network research, laying the foundation for deep learning (Rumelhart et al., 1986). |
| 1997 | Deep Blue defeats Kasparov | AI surpasses humans in specific tasks (such as chess) (Campbell et al., 2002). |
| 2011 | IBM Watson wins Jeopardy! | Demonstrates AI’s strength in natural language processing and knowledge answering (Ferrucci et al., 2010). |
| 2012 | AlexNet wins ImageNet challenge | Breakthrough in deep learning in image recognition (Krizhevsky et al., 2012). |
| 2017 | Proposal of Transformer architecture | Provides the basis for the development of large language models (Vaswani et al., 2017). |
| 2020 | Release of GPT-3 | Demonstrates AI’s powerful capabilities in language generation and understanding (Brown et al., 2020). |
These milestones highlight the progression from theoretical foundations to practical applications, culminating in the development of general AI agents.
Manus: The First General AI Agent?
Manus, launched in March 2025 by Butterfly Effect, is widely regarded as the world’s first general AI agent, capable of autonomous task execution without continuous human supervision (Butterfly Effect, 2025). Unlike traditional chatbots, it integrates multiple AI models, such as Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 Sonnet and Alibaba’s Qwen, and employs sub-agents for tasks like travel planning, financial analysis, and code deployment (VentureBeat, 2025). Its interface, supporting multiple languages with a “Manus’s Computer” sidebar for transparency, is user-friendly (MIT Technology Review, 2025).
Specific capabilities include:
- Creating personalized Japan travel itineraries (Manus.im, 2025).
- Analyzing Tesla stock with visual dashboards (Manus.im, 2025).
- Generating interactive lessons for teachers (Manus.im, 2025).
- Comparing insurance policies and deploying code (Hugging Face, 2025).
（“First TRULY General Agent ‘MANUS’ Blows Up the Internet – The Most HYPED AI Ever!”，2025）
Testing revealed strengths, such as completing tasks like compiling reporter lists, but also challenges like system crashes and handling paid content (MIT Technology Review, 2025). Chief Scientist Peak Ji noted efforts to improve stability via an X post (Peak Ji, 2025), and with over 186,000 Discord members, its popularity is evident (MIT Technology Review, 2025).
The debate over the “first” AI agent includes earlier systems like ELIZA, but Manus’s general capabilities mark a significant advancement, though some, like TechCrunch, question if it meets all expectations (TechCrunch, 2025).
Future Prospects and Ethical Considerations
The future of AI agents, inspired by Manus, is promising, with Deloitte predicting 25% enterprise adoption by 2025, rising to 50% by 2027, and a market growth to $47.1 billion by 2030 (Deloitte, 2024; Grand View Research, 2024). Applications span business efficiency, personal assistance, healthcare, and education, with multi-agent systems expected to enhance collaboration (Salesforce, 2024; Simple.ai, 2024).
However, ethical challenges loom large. IBM highlights potential job displacement (IBM, 2025), while privacy concerns arise from data collection, necessitating regulation (TIME, 2025). Accountability for agent errors remains unresolved, requiring further research (Analytics Vidhya, 2024).
Conclusion
Manus’s launch in March 2025 signals the AI agent era, showcasing autonomy and multi-tasking potential. While challenges persist, the future holds significant opportunities, balanced by the need for ethical frameworks to ensure benefits for humanity.
Key Citations
- History of artificial intelligence Wikipedia page: History of artificial intelligence detailed overview
- Everyone in AI is talking about Manus We put it to the test MIT Technology Review: Manus AI review and testing insights
- China’s Autonomous Agent Manus Changes Everything Forbes: China’s Manus AI agent transformative impact
- Manus AI The Best Autonomous AI Agent Redefining Automation Hugging Face: Manus AI automation capabilities detailed
- China’s Manus AI agent could be our 1st glimpse at artificial general intelligence Live Science: Manus AI and potential for general intelligence
- What is Manus China’s World-First Fully Autonomous AI Agent Explained Newsweek: Explanation of Manus AI agent functionality
- Introducing Manus The general AI agent WorkOS: Introduction to Manus as general AI agent
- What you need to know about Manus the new AI agentic system from China VentureBeat: Detailed analysis of Manus AI system
- Manus probably isn’t China’s second DeepSeek moment TechCrunch: Critical view on Manus AI capabilities
- Manus AI Features Architecture Access Early Issues More DataCamp: Manus AI features and early issues
- AI Agents in 2025 A Comprehensive Review and Future Outlook Medium: Comprehensive review of AI agents in 2025
- AI Agents in 2025 Expectations vs Reality IBM: Expectations and reality of AI agents in 2025
- Top 10 AI Agent Trends and Predictions for 2025 Analytics Vidhya: Trends and predictions for AI agents in 2025
- What’s next for AI in 2025 MIT Technology Review: Future outlook for AI technologies in 2025
- Future of AI Agents 2025 Salesforce: Future predictions for AI agents in 2025
- 5 Predictions for AI in 2025 TIME: Five key predictions for AI developments in 2025
- 2025 will be the year of AI agents TechTarget: AI agents predicted dominance in 2025
- 3 Predictions for the Future of AI Agents in 2025 Simple ai: Three predictions for AI agents future
- AI Agents Take the Lead A Look Ahead to 2025 Medium: AI agents leading role in future outlook
- Chief scientist on Manus instability X post: Peak Ji on Manus AI stability issues
- Manus official website: Official Manus AI agent website details
Other references：
- Cao, A. (2025, March 10). AI agent Manus partners with Alibaba’s Qwen to develop Chinese version. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3301986/ai-agent-manus-partners-alibabas-qwen-develop-chinese-version
- First TRULY General Agent “MANUS” Blows Up the Internet – The Most HYPED AI Ever! [Video]. (2025, March 7). YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fTv_uXr5oQ
